Kenya Warned As Scientists Predict June El Nino Could Be One Of Strongest Ever

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has officially confirmed an 80% likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with chances rising above 90% through November.

El Niño is historically devastating for Kenya. In the Horn of Africa, the phenomenon brings above-normal rainfall, dangerous flooding and disease outbreaks. Scientists are now warning this one could rank among the most powerful ever recorded.

NOAA estimates a 65% chance the event could become "strong or very strong" between October 2026 and February 2027, potentially placing it among the most powerful El Niño events on record.

The greatest impacts in Kenya would likely occur during the October to December 2026 short rains season, the rainfall period most strongly linked to El Niño conditions in East Africa.

The Kenya Meteorological Department says early preparedness is critical as warning signs become clearer. Already saturated soils from the current long rains season make flooding risks even higher.

The 1997/98 El Nino destroyed crops, roads and infrastructure across East Africa. Experts fear 2026 could be worse.